The United Kingdom is poised to experience an unprecedented heatwave as the start of May approaches, potentially setting record temperatures. This summer-like weather pattern could herald the hottest beginning to May ever recorded, particularly in the southeastern regions of England. With forecasts indicating a peak temperature of 29°C, this would surpass the previous record of 27.4°C set on 1 May 1990 in Lossiemouth, Scotland. Meteorologists note that the anticipated temperatures will be between 7°C to 11°C above the climatological averages typical for this time of year.
Following the peak of this heat on Thursday, temperatures are expected to gradually decline over the coming Bank Holiday weekend, eventually returning to seasonal norms by Monday. For instance, while Thursday is likely to bask in summer warmth, maximum temperatures during the weekend are projected to cool, averaging around the mid-teens to low twenties Celsius. Rainfall is expected to accompany this change, particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland, which could face significantly cooler conditions and even some precipitation.
On Wednesday prior to the May heat, the UK experienced temperatures across the country in the low to mid-twenties, with 26.7°C recorded in Wisley, Surrey, marking the warmest April day in seven years. In Scotland, a high of 24.4°C was reached in Aboyne, Aberdeenshire, while Wales displayed its second hottest April day, coming close to breaking its record of 26.2°C set nearly two decades ago. This warm air, brought forth by persistent high-pressure systems, has led to unusually warm weather extending into early May.
The persistence of this high-pressure area has effectively caused rain-bearing low-pressure systems typically arriving from the North Atlantic to be diverted, resulting in a long stretch of dry and settled weather—a stark contrast to the usual changeable April climate. Warm air transported from North Africa and the Mediterranean via a southerly wind has contributed to the rise in temperatures, further exacerbated by strong sunlight that has warmed both the ground and the air over the past week.
However, as locals and travelers enjoy the unseasonably warm conditions, there will be a shift in the weather by the Bank Holiday weekend, as cooler maritime air moves in, bringing with it the potential for cloud cover and showers. For example, Friday is predicted to witness a drop in temperatures, and while sunny intervals may keep the temperatures feeling pleasantly warm in southeastern regions, overall, the warmth will dissipate.
Forecast insights for the weekend indicate that Saturday may remain relatively dry for many, although northern Scotland might experience cooler and cloudier conditions. Highs elsewhere are expected to range from 16°C to 22°C. On Sunday, increased cloudiness along the eastern coastline is anticipated, juxtaposed with clearer skies and mild temperatures in some parts of the country entertaining highs between 13°C and 17°C.
As the weather cools, many are left wondering whether these warm spells may be related to the ongoing impacts of climate change. Experts suggest that while warm weather in spring isn’t inherently uncommon, the patterns associated with this current warm spell—such as blocking high-pressure systems—are becoming more frequent, likely a result of anthropogenic influences. Research by Climate Central points to a marked increase in the likelihood of such high temperatures, with implications of heightened risks for more extreme weather events, including heatwaves and prolonged drought during the spring and summer months.
In summary, the UK is about to witness an extraordinary start to May with temperatures potentially soaring to record-breaking levels. While this unprecedented warmth offers an opportunity for outdoor activities, it is imperative to remain cautious about the accompanying shifts in weather patterns and the broader implications of climate change. The next few days will reveal how long this early summer warmth will last before cooler temperatures become the norm once again.