On Thursday, June 18, 2025, the United Kingdom is set to experience a notable rise in temperature, with forecasts predicting highs of up to 30°C (86°F) in various regions. This anticipated heat wave marks a significant change in weather patterns for the UK, with warm weather likely to develop gradually throughout the week. With night temperatures also expected to remain elevated, many areas are projected to experience warm nights with temperatures reaching the high teens.
The temperatures will vary across regions, peaking on different days. Thursday will witness the highest temperatures primarily in southern and eastern regions, as well as the Midlands and South West England. Following this, Friday is expected to bring the heat to the northern and western parts of the country, with locations such as Aviemore in Scotland, Strabane in Northern Ireland, and Aberystwyth in Wales likely to reach 28°C or possibly higher.
As the weekend approaches, east Wales, eastern Scotland, and a large portion of England will feel the heat’s intensity, with peaks soaring to between 28°C and 31°C. On Saturday, some areas in southeastern England and East Anglia could even reach 33°C. Moreover, Saturday night is anticipated to bring the first “tropical night” of the year, where temperatures do not dip below 20°C, especially in parts of the southeast.
The cause of this sharp rise in temperature can be attributed to a developing area of high pressure, which is shifting winds towards a southerly direction, bringing in hot air from other areas of Western Europe. Meanwhile, parts of France and Spain are projected to see temperatures rise close to 40°C during the same period, showcasing the broader heatwave sweeping across the continent.
The criteria for officially declaring a heatwave in the UK is set by the Met Office, which requires that certain temperature thresholds be met for at least three consecutive days. These thresholds vary, with the north and west of the UK needing to reach at least 25°C, while areas in eastern England require temperatures to reach 28°C.
While previous warm spells have been experienced this season, they have not sustained long enough to classify as a heatwave. However, the current conditions seem poised for change. A recent study by the Met Office indicates that the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 40°C in the UK is increasing alarmingly, with the 19th of July 2022 being the last recorded date when temperatures surpassed this mark.
This shift in temperature dynamics has raised concerns regarding the climate, with studies suggesting that occurrences of such extreme temperatures would have been highly unlikely without the influence of human-induced climate change. Gillian Kay, the lead author of the Met Office’s study, stated that temperatures significantly higher than those recorded in July 2022 are plausible, highlighting the seriousness of the current climate situation.
The UK’s records show that the highest June temperature is 35.6°C, set in Southampton during the notorious summer of 1976, which featured an unprecedented 18-day heatwave. The present models suggest that today’s climate conditions could support a heatwave lasting up to 39 days, further amplifying the urgency of addressing climate changes.
In response to the rising temperatures, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued yellow heat-health alerts for most of England, warning of potential impacts on health and recommending precautions for vulnerable populations, including the elderly. However, it should also be noted that a heatwave does not always equate to clear skies; the forecast suggests potential showers and thunderstorms may develop as temperatures rise, adding an unpredictable element to weekend plans.
As the temperatures begin to cool slightly into the next week, westerly winds are expected to bring in the possibility of increased rain across the country, albeit hot conditions may linger in the southeast region. Thus, while preparation for the heat is crucial, it serves as a reminder of the increasingly erratic nature of the UK’s weather and the broader changes occurring due to climatic shifts. The following weeks will be closely monitored by meteorologists, as the weather continues to develop and affect various aspects of daily life.