The recent agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union, designed to “reset” post-Brexit relations, has introduced significant shifts in various sectors, particularly in trade, fishing, and mobility. This new arrangement aims to address ongoing issues plaguing cross-border relations while creating new opportunities and challenges for different stakeholders. By analyzing the potential winners and losers stemming from this agreement, we can better understand its implications and how it will shape the relationship between the UK and the EU moving forward.
The agreement covers a diverse array of topics, including defence cooperation, trade in food products, fishing rights, and the mobility of young individuals between the UK and EU. Among the most significant aspects of this agreement is the potential transformation within the food export sector. UK food exporters may emerge as one of the primary beneficiaries of this deal. Reports indicate that exporters could face simplified checks when trading with the EU, significantly alleviating the burdens that emerged post-Brexit when new checks and paperwork became necessary. For instance, UK exports of certain food items, such as raw burgers and sausages, faced bans due to EU import restrictions. The new agreement could ease such restrictions, potentially leading to a boost in food and drink exports, which accounted for £14 billion in sales to the EU in 2023 alone.
However, this opportunity does not come without strings attached. The UK would need to adopt evolving EU food standards, a system dubbed “dynamic alignment,” and agree to have disputes resolved by the European Court of Justice. Additionally, there are unknown financial obligations tied to this agreement, including potential contributions the UK may need to make. As a result, while food exporters might be winners, those opposed to adhering to further EU regulations or perceived burdens associated with EU law will likely view this development unfavorably.
The fishing industry presents another clear divide between winners and losers in this agreement. The EU fishing vessels will receive an additional 12 years of access to UK waters, building on past agreements. This provision can be viewed as a success for the EU but a setback for many UK fishermen who anticipated annual negotiations that could lead to increased control over fishing access in UK waters. Critics, including those from the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, have expressed discontent, labeling the agreement as detrimental and calling for a renegotiation that allows for annual discussions on access rights. While the prime minister assures that the quantity of fish that EU vessels can catch will not increase, the long-term implications for UK fishermen might limit their bargaining power.
Moreover, the youth mobility aspect of the agreement signifies both a shift towards greater opportunity for young people and potential challenges regarding immigration. Young individuals across the UK and the EU may soon benefit from easier travel for education and work purposes under a proposed “youth experience scheme.” However, detractors, particularly those concerned about rising net migration, cite the need for caution regarding how such mobility might affect immigration statistics. There are concerns that though these opportunities may initially increase migration levels, the long-term impact could be mitigated through systematic phasing of the scheme.
Another key point of the agreement relates to the use of eGates at EU airports for British tourists, which promises a reduction in border control delays—a significant source of frustration for travelers. Nevertheless, the specifics regarding which airports will implement this policy and when it will take effect remain unclear, and travel organizations suggest that improvements may not be visible in the immediate future.
Defense sector companies in the UK could also find a silver lining in the EU’s new Security Action for Europe fund. This initiative, aimed at rearmament, may open doors for UK defense firms to sell equipment to EU countries, thereby enhancing the UK’s defense manufacturing industry. However, the details on how the UK will ultimately engage with this fund are still being finalized, leaving uncertainty for stakeholders.
In conclusion, this new UK-EU agreement presents distinct winners and losers, with varied consequences across different sectors. While opportunities emerge for food exporters, young people, and defense firms, challenges continue to face fishermen and those opposing increased EU regulatory alignment. As both parties navigate these transitions, the pact reflects not only the complexities of post-Brexit relations but also the ongoing evolution of political and economic ties between the UK and the EU.