The recent by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse served as a pivotal moment in Scottish politics, revealing shifting dynamics and unexpected outcomes. While the Labour Party emerged as the clear winner, it was the Reform UK party that arguably made the most significant strides during this election. With Labour securing a necessary boost ahead of the anticipated Scottish Parliament elections next year, Reform UK’s performance proves they are a growing force in Scotland’s political landscape.
Labour’s victory in the by-election was undoubtedly a source of celebration, particularly considering the party’s struggle to reclaim influence in Scotland after years of SNP dominance. Labour managed to amass 8,559 votes, translating to a marginal majority of 602 votes over the SNP, a trend that signals possible changing sentiments among voters. This by-election provided essential validation for the party’s leadership, specifically for its Scottish leader Anas Sarwar, who has been vocal about addressing public dissatisfaction with the UK Labour government.
However, it was another party, Reform UK, that emerged as a surprising victor in the context of the election, finishing third with an impressive 26% of the votes. This marked their best result in a parliamentary election in Scotland, showcasing their increasing appeal among constituents tired of traditional political narratives. The party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, heralded the third-place finish as a “massive boost” going into the crucial May 2026 vote, establishing Reform UK as a legitimate contender in forthcoming elections.
Against this backdrop, both the SNP and Labour experienced a drop in vote share. Nevertheless, the punishment appeared far more severe for the SNP, which has remained in power at Holyrood for the last 18 years. The SNP consistently positioned the contest as a referendum between themselves and Reform UK, only to find their argument significantly flawed as they failed to anticipate Labour’s resurgence. This comes at a time when substantial questions loom over the SNP’s electoral strategy and their ability to retain public support moving forward.
Importantly, this by-election highlighted shifting attitudes toward immigration, an issue that Reform UK capitalized on effectively. Voter discontent with existing political leadership across both Holyrood and Westminster was palpably felt. With their strong performance, Reform UK may challenge the established consensus regarding immigration’s role in addressing Scotland’s job market and demographic challenges.
The by-election results have raised alarms within the Conservative Party as well, which found itself a distant fourth behind both Reform UK and the other major parties. This outcome has been interpreted as a considerable setback for Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay and raises concerns over the party’s viability amid Reform UK’s ascent.
Moreover, while Labour celebrated, it is essential to note that this victory cannot solely be claimed by Sir Keir Starmer. His leadership’s recent decisions and policies, including cuts to winter fuel payments, have negatively impacted his standing within Scotland. Despite being absent from the campaign trail, Starmer’s party managed to mobilize a ground operation that brought sufficient voters to the polls.
As the by-election challenges existing norms within Scottish politics, the outcome may reshape public perceptions heading toward May’s elections. Observers note that this localized victory, even amidst a low turnout, might have national implications, particularly with Reform UK positioning itself as a credible alternative to both established parties.
For the parties looking to compete in future elections, this by-election signifies an urgent need for reflection and strategy recalibrations. The Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse election has not only restored some vigor to Scottish Labour but also serves as a stark reminder to the SNP that continued dominance cannot be taken for granted. With critical months ahead, all parties are now acutely aware that Reform UK’s influence is on the rise and that the electorate’s sentiment can shift dramatically.