### The Philippines Has Voted: The Resurgence of Political Rivalry
The political landscape of the Philippines is once again charged with tension following the mid-term elections held in May 2025. As the vibrant spectacle of the two-month election campaign fades, a fierce struggle emerges between the two dominant political families in the nation, the Marcoses and the Dutertes. President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., and his Vice-President, Sara Duterte, find themselves at the epicenter of a bitter feud that may redefine the nature of power dynamics in Filipino politics.
Historically, these two political dynasties have walked a razor’s edge, navigating victory together during the 2022 presidential elections, where they emerged triumphant. However, the current day finds them embroiled in a dangerous rivalry, with Marcos accusing Duterte of threats and Duterte responding with accusations of incompetence. Given the high stakes involved, this election not only signifies a search for political dominance but also serves as a litmus test for the robustness of these influential family legacies.
One striking aspect of the recent election results was the lack of significant success for the Marcos camp. Traditionally, sitting presidents in the Philippines tend to see the majority of their endorsed candidates win seats in the Senate during mid-term elections. However, out of the twelve senators elected, only six were aligned with the Marcoses. Notably, one of them, Camille Villar, represents a divided allegiance, as she also received backing from Sara Duterte’s faction.
Parallel to this, four senators emerged from Duterte’s camp, including Imee Marcos, the sister of the president. The fact that two of the highest vote-getters were not from the Marcos party signals a critical shift. As senators are elected based on popular national votes, these results may diminish Marcos’s authority and cast doubt on his recent attempt to initiate Duterte’s impeachment.
The rift between Marcos and Duterte developed progressively since their administration began, culminating in a significant break this year. A major catalyst was the president’s decision to initiate an impeachment process against his vice president, leading to a fatal rupture in their alliance. The fallout intensified further when Marcos took action against Duterte’s father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, by sending him to the International Criminal Court, portraying it as a betrayal that exacerbated tensions throughout the country.
Now, as this tumultuous political saga unfolds, both sides are forced to construct their narratives carefully. The looming threat of impeachment against Sara Duterte underscores an uphill battle for the Marcos camp. If successful, her removal from public office would thwart her ambition to succeed in office in the next election. Current public sentiment appears favorable toward Duterte, even as she gains popularity, which could enable her to wield considerable power within the political framework should she ascend to the presidency.
The scenario grows more complex as the impeachment process must garner a two-thirds majority in the 24-seat Senate—a monumental task given the results of the recent elections. Notably, many senators operate from established political families or entertainment backgrounds and may not vote strictly along party lines due to their own ambitions and perceptions of public opinion. A political scientist, Cleve Arguelles, highlights that senators tend to be attuned to public sentiment, making them cautious about their votes concerning impeachment, especially when potential presidential aspirations loom.
Despite the challenges and fractures in both parties’ strategies, Bongbong Marcos faces intensified scrutiny and pressure as he navigates a volatile national climate. His underwhelming personal popularity and the positive public perception of opposition figures signal a worrying trend for his administration. The potential role of liberal politicians, who have capitalized on the dysfunction between the two historic families, could be a game-changer in the impending political landscape.
As we look ahead to the anticipated impeachment trial set to begin in July, the political stage will be rife with discord and lobbying efforts as both camps vie for supremacy. No vice president or president has faced successful impeachment in the Philippines thus far, nor have any two leaders fallen out so dramatically. What remains evident is that the year to come will be tumultuous and fraught with implications for the future of governance in the Philippines, as the competition for power and loyalty continues to unfold.