The concept that the collective judgment of a crowd can yield accurate predictions is fundamentally challenged by the unpredictable nature of spiritual influences, particularly those attributed to the Holy Spirit. This paradox was brought to light during the recent selection of the first American pope, a remarkable event that caught many off guard, including betting platforms known for their analytical prowess, such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket and Kalshi, popular “prediction markets” that facilitate wagers on the outcomes of diverse events, operate under the assumption that financial stakes can enhance collective forecasting abilities. Their claim is based on the belief that when money is involved, participants are motivated to put forth their most honest and informed predictions. While these markets had some notable successes—in particular, they outperformed traditional polling methods during the predictions for Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory—the choice of Pope Leo XIV, a Chicago native named Robert Prevost, was an unexpected twist. The expectations set by these platforms misestimated Prevost’s likelihood of being elected, brandishing him as a long shot with betting odds hovering between 1% and 2% before the conclave.
Following the announcement of Prevost’s election, several gamblers who had placed bets on him struck it rich. For instance, one individual on Polymarket reportedly transformed a wager of just over $1,000 into an astonishing profit of $63,683, according to the betting platform’s transparency metrics. This scenario sheds light on the unpredictability inherent in betting markets, which can be strikingly accurate or vastly off the mark, revealing limitations in their predictive powers.
Betting markets cover a broad array of topics and events, and their reputations vary. While they famously called the 2024 presidential election correctly, they suffered significant failures in previous years, such as in 2016, when many analysts confidently suggested that British voters would reject Brexit, alongside predictions that Hillary Clinton would claim victory against Trump. The outcome of the papal conclave demonstrates that even the most sophisticated predictive mechanisms can falter in unique scenarios, particularly when faced with situations that involve spiritual guidance and deep-rooted tradition, like the election of a pope.
In comparing betting scenarios, sports wagers benefit from the abundance of data—decades of statistics, players’ performance records, and expert opinions compounding in mass amounts. Conversely, in the realm of papal betting, available data remains sparse, posing a challenge to forecasting. According to Eric Zitzewitz, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College, the infrequency of papal elections, occurring only every decade or two, creates a significant gap in useful data for predictions. Furthermore, he pointed out the lack of transparency in the selection process, which rarely features in-depth analyses or revelations that could inform potential outcomes.
Several analysts had speculated on potential favorites for the papacy, with names like Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle frequently appearing before the conclave started. Election forecaster Nate Silver noted that as the white smoke indicating the election emerged, Parolin’s likelihood of selection increased, reflecting the belief that swift decisions might benefit the frontrunners. However, the dynamic negotiations and alliances occurring within the Sistine Chapel during deliberations remained inscrutable from the outside, making accurate predictions exceedingly difficult.
Ultimately, even the most liquid markets, which prediction theorists argue should yield more accurate outcomes, lacked the tools necessary to measure the influence of divine inspiration believed by many to guide the decisions made by the cardinals. This leaves us to ponder the extent to which human analysis can truly understand or predict spiritual guidance. As Zitzewitz aptly put it, “The Holy Spirit is indeed a wily one.” In conclusion, while betting markets strive to capitalize on collective wisdom, the complexities surrounding the selection of a pope reveal a realm where human understanding struggles against the mystical elements of faith and belief.